Some political observers are speculating that the list of 2016 Democratic presidential candidates could come down to Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York, Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton, Sen. Mark R. Warner of Virginia, possibly Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and, of course, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.
Cuomo got a much-publicized bump recently when he took the lead in successfully pushing same-sex marriage legislation through the Republican-controlled New York state Senate. The four Republicans who cast their votes with their Democratic colleagues helped thrust the former secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development under President Bill Clinton into the national limelight.
As expected, when some same-sex marriage supporters saw Cuomo's Herculean efforts, they called on O'Malley to follow his example in Maryland, where similar legislation made it through the Senate but unexpectedly stalled in the House last session.
At a news conference Friday, O'Malley announced that he will be the lead sponsor on a same-sex marriage bill in the 2012 General Assembly. O'Malley said the public has in common "certain fundamental beliefs," including in the "dignity of every individual and also our understanding that Marylanders of all walks of life really want the same thing for their children." He went on to discuss a "home that is protected equally under the law."
What was left unsaid, of course, was why O'Malley apparently didn't feel strongly enough about the issue last session to publicly promote it. Perhaps the answer lies in Del. Maggie L. McIntosh's (D-Dist. 43) assertion that the strategy for advancing same-sex marriage legislation has changed. Last session, advocates hoped to quietly get it passed; next session, perhaps emboldened by New York's experience and national polls that show a majority of Americans now support legalizing same-sex marriage (a Gallup poll in May indicates that 53 percent approve - 69 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 28 percent of Republicans), the tack is to support it more vocally.
In a sense, O'Malley is in a no-win situation, politically, by taking the lead on the issue. Even if a same-sex marriage measure is approved next time around, it'll still look like he's simply playing Cuomo-lite. If the measure fails again, it'll be viewed as a decisive defeat for the governor.
It's one thing to support an issue on principle. But if O'Malley, ever the political animal, is looking to forge his own leadership identity - and in the process position himself for a possible presidential run in 2016 - he still needs a discernible agenda victory of his own.
Given his obvious predilection for environmental issues, O'Malley possibly could score the needed coup in that area. The problem is that he took a beating on his two main environmental initiatives in 2011: off-shore wind power and septic control. Whether he wins the uphill battle on either of those fronts - or even has the stomach for the scrap - could go a long way in determining his status five years from now.
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